USC Trojans 2025 Football Preview, Prediction, Betting Ideas

USC Trojans

2024 Record: 7-6

2024 over/under: 7.5 (under hit)

Looking back at '24: It is fair to say that the Lincoln Riley era in Southern California hasn't quite delivered the results to date as many were expecting. Riley felt like a hire that had Trojan fans dreaming of the days of Matt Leinart, Reggie Bush, and Pete Carroll, when USC was among the heavy-hitters of the sport. If USC is to get back to those heights, they must find ways to close out ball games. In '24, USC led in 11 of the 12 games in the fourth quarter. The season got off to a great start with a win over LSU. The Miller Moss Heisman ticket holders were dreaming big! The overtime loss to Penn State was a gut-punch as the Trojans had undefeated Penn State at the time well and truly on the ropes, leading by 14 at half. The head scratcher was a 29-28 loss at the hands of Maryland, where the Trojans led by 14 with 10 minutes to play in the 4th quarter. Eventually, Moss lost his starting job to Maiava, the UNLV transfer, and the Heisman dreams were well and truly dashed(long gone). Maiava proved to be a bit of a roller coaster himself, throwing 2 pick-6's against Notre Dame in a loss to the Irish, and capped off the year with a bowl win against Texas A&M, throwing 4tds and three ints to boot! Lincoln Riley has been doing the actionables required to get this program back to the lofty heights of the early 2000s. On fire on the recruiting trail, making the coaching changes, etc. Ultimately, he will need to be buttoned up on Saturdays this fall; late-game collapses will likely fall on his shoulders if they continue (as they should). With the Los Angeles folks' investment in this Trojans program, Riley wants to ensure USC is returning to the conference title conversation.

Program Trends: Recruiting ranking Big10 2026(summer): 1st

2025: 4th

2024: 5th

Returning production ranking Big10:

2025: 14th

2024:14th

Portal rankings BIG10 2025: 16th

Program: Despite some of the results on the field from a year ago. A lot of indicators are pointing up for this USC program. Bringing Chad Bowden from Notre Dame as the General Manager was a big get, as he helped build the Irish into title contenders. How about the recruiting? There is still a lot of work to do, but #1 in the NATION for the 2026 class as of this summer, and the 2025 class was nothing to sneeze at. Husan Longstreet, the 5-star QB, was the gem of the incoming class. Maiava will need to be buttoned up. Riley hasn't been afraid to throw in an electric freshman QB in the past. One area of concern is the losses in the portal. Joyner (RB) had a nice year; he departs to Texas Tech, while Pregnon and Alexander depart to Oregon, thinning out the offensive and defensive line depth.

Offense: Lincoln Riley will again have his hands all over the offense. However, the offensive coordinator from a year ago heads to Purdue, as Henson will take over the Boilermakers' OC duties. Huard, the QBs coach, gets a promotion to OC. The offense still had some big days last season, 379 total yards on the road to Michigan, 409 on a salty Penn State defense, 557(!) on ND, and 400 on the Aggies to close things out. Maiava will need to tidy up the 11 TD to 6 INT ratio if he wants to keep Longstreet off his heels. The WR room will be electrifying. You know you're loaded when you lose Branch and Duce Robinson and aren't too stressed. Makai Lemon and Ja'kobi Lane are the go-to men. Lemon in particular is someone I have my eye on, he led the team in receptions a year ago, and had north of 700 yards receiving, he has first-team all-conference potential. Lane, meanwhile, led the team with 12 TD receptions. Eli Sanders, a transfer from New Mexico, will be the likely RB. You hate that Joyner's departure to Texas Tech! J'onre Reed was a key addition in the portal. He will slide into the 0-Line, which returns only a few starters. Paige graded out decent, while Noa did not. DJ Wingfield, an LA native, transfers over from Purdue to add some depth here on the line. He had a nice season in the BIG 10 a year ago, and for a line that appears thin on paper, he will need to step in seamlessly right away.

Defense: D'Anton Lynn is back in charge of the Trojans' defense for his second year. Basic counting stat, but Lynn improved this defense from giving up 432 yards per game under Alex Grinch's tutelage (Good luck UCF) to 377 yards per game last season—a different conference and style of play. However, LSU, Penn State, and Notre Dame were all on the schedule last year. Keeshawn Silver was the significant transfer addition on defense. The DT will bolster a line that lost a few key contributors. Kameryn Fountain and Braylen Shelby are guys off the edge who will likely need to step up if this line has some juice. Eric Gentry, who was a freshman All-American, returns for his redshirt senior year at LB. 6.5 tackles for loss before getting knocked out in game 4 for the season is quite impressive. Trojan fans will hold their collective breath to ensure he stays healthy. Kamari Ramsey at Safety is the unquestioned star of the defense, ending the year with seven tackles and a pick vs Texas A&M. DJ Harvey a San Jose State transfer, who graded out remarkably well in the Mountian West, will look to lead a young CB room, can the likes of a Marcelles Williams or Braylon Conley step up? Trojan's fans will surely hope so.

Roster in a nutshell: Man, this is tough; it feels a bit light in the trenches this season for USC. A lot of young talent and crazy ability at WR. But is this USC team equipped to win big this year with the potential depth concerns at DT and LB? The offensive line that doesn't exactly scream buttoned up, with Monheim drafted by the Jaguars and Pregnon off to Oregon.

Statistical Pulse: USC averaged the second-most rush yards per attempt last season at 5.16 yards per, and they also graded out the second-best rushing team in the Big 10 per PFF. Unfortunate to lose Woody Marks(RB) to the NFL, and that damn Joyner transfer once again looks bad! USC led the Big 10 in passing yards per game while only allowing 15 sacks during the season, once again being second best in the league. How the hell did this team only win seven games again??? USC's second-best third-down defense in the conference only allowed 33% of the conversions to their opponents.

Schedule: What I do like about the 2025 iteration of the Trojans is that they will get 3 weeks to button themselves up. Two elementary non-conference games followed by a road trip to Purdue will be a nice way to get up and running. At Illinois, At Notre Dame, and At Oregon will be daunting. Michigan and Iowa will be the two toughest tests coming to the Coliseum.

Prediction: There are many things to like that are taking place at USC. Riley is rebuilding this program through his recruiting efforts, and the money is getting invested. I have this program bookmarked, underlined, and circled for a 2026 run. But hearing whispers of a sleeper Big 10 title team in 2025, I don't see that. After doing the deep dive, I'm scratching my head at how this team went 7-6 a year ago; the stats back up that this was a solid team. One that blew a lot of tight ball games down the stretch. But they lose key contributors in the trenches and on the defense. So, even if Riley buttons up the late-game play calling, I believe the record for this group is 8-4. So, a very competitive group! However, teams with staunch trench play like Illinois, Michigan, and Notre Dame will be too much for the Trojans, and a trip to Eugene will likely also be a loss. 2025 feels like one more year where Lincoln Riley needs to keep the ship steering in the right direction on the field record-wise, with the array of young talent in line, and be set for a breakout in '26.

Game to circle: On September 27th, USC travels to Illinois. With what the Illini return on the O-line, I think they can gash this Trojans' defense. Also, the strength of the Illinois defense is the secondary. So, I think this will be a poor matchup for the Trojans, and it just might be their first loss of the season if they come out of the gates hot. If the Illini drop an early one to either Duke or Indiana, I will be jumping on them here vs. USC.

Actionable: Notre Dame v USC (-10.5 FanDuel). You must wait until this line comes below 10, which it will because of all the USC buzz. However, with Lincoln Riley wanting to scrap the iconic college football rivalry, Freeman will look to hang a number on USC. Not to mention, this Notre Dame team is undoubtedly one of, if not the most talented, rosters in the country.

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