UCF Knights 2025 College Football Preview, Prediction, Betting Insights

UCF

View from afar: Scott Frost has returned to the self-proclaimed ‘2017 National Champions. After that epic 13-0 season in the AAC, Frost went to Nebraska and failed to make a bowl game, ending his tenure in 2022. It was a disaster in Lincoln. Can he get his coaching career back on track at the place he put on the map? He hired Grinch to run the defense, which was a head-scratching move, no doubt, given how poor the USC defense looked under his guidance, but I regressed. Cooper comes over from Boise State to run the offense, but he worked with Frost at Nebraska, so a previous connection. The cupboard was pretty bare upon arrival in Orlando, so this will be a complete roster overhaul for the Knights. My early expectations are not high as this team comes off a 4-8 season and returns the least amount of production in the conference. Maybe that's a good thing for Frost, and he can just focus on building this thing from the ground up in year 1.

Recruiting: UCF finished the '25 cycle with the bottom class in the Big 12, a massive drop off from the #3 class they put together in '24. The coaching change obviously was a major factor, but tough pill to swallow when you are in such a talent rich area and are getting out recruiting by the likes of Kansas and Arizona.

Transfer Portal: 37 players in, 38 players out! Let's start with the incoming - Jackson (QB Indiana) is the likely starter. Nixon (RB Western Michigan) and Wade (Miami Ohio) were MAC additions that were solid and proven at a lower level. Defensively, they added some excellent players, mainly Edwards (Edge Pitt), Bellamy (Syracuse CB), Dunnam (FAU S), and Kozlowski (Colgate LB). Losses - Hunter (DT Texas Tech) that hurts losing a Big 12 performer from last season. Medley and Pittman follow Malzahn to FSU, and Alexander (LB Wash) will all be missed, to be fair, with 38 out the door, this could have been a laundry list.

Roster tidbits: We think Jackson will be the QB after coming over from Indiana. He did start a critical game for the Hoosiers against Washington to keep them undefeated. He threw for 124 yards with a TD and a pick. Rubelt (OT) will lead the line with many transfers, and other than the afore-mentioned transfers, Waden Charles is a freshman WR that has impressed, as well as former 4-star Kylan Fox. Defensively, Kelly and Lawrence (Edge) will be joined by primary transfer Edwards to see if this line can get some pressure on the QB. Otherwise, it's transfers galore. Let’s see what Alex Grinch pieces together! It's year one, tons of questions all over the place, the secondary? O-line? Not to mention QB or who said QB will be throwing, too.

Statistical pulse: UCF graded out as the 3rd ranked run defense, and second ranked pass rush a year ago. Yes they lost an All Big 12 performer off that line, but if you want to talk yourself into this team I guess you can start there!

Schedule: Bill Belichick will be on the sidelines in the bounce house when UNC heads down to Orlando for a non-conference matchup. At K-State, Baylor, Texas Tech, and BYU. Yikes! Though the home slate is manageable at first glance for the Knights.

Prediction: One thing here I don't love is why Frost brought in guys he previously worked with. I would have liked to see fresh relationships and signs of thinking outside the box as opposed to the old crew type mentality. Ultimately this team I don't think has the talent to compete this season, and the defense which has some pieces I like is being managed by Grinch? Seems a questionable hire. UCF goes 4-8 and just tries to set a foundation for the coming seasons in Orlando.

Actionable: Earlier in the offseason, UCF's over-under was 6.5. I would have been pounding the table on an under there, unfortunately, it's been bet down to 5.5. Still UCF under 3.5 conference wins (DK). They have Kansas, OK State, Houston, and West Virginia at home. You must go 4-0, as I don't see them getting a road win in the league. West Virginia will be coming off a bye, and a team I would have wanted to face earlier rather than later in the year. I am fading Scott Frost and the Knights in year 1.