TCU Football 2025 Preview, Prediction, Betting ideas
View from afar: TCU 2025
Sonny Dykes and co must be feeling pretty good about where things stand going into 2025. If things align, this program is poised to have another strong season and another playoff run. Coming off a 9-4 season where they won 6 of their last 7 games, including a dubbing of Louisiana in the New Mexico bowl. What is intriguing about that is that TCU did that while losing to UCF and Houston. If this team avoids those slip-ups, the sky is the limit. Avalos returns to run the defense, and there are whispers that he is confident in his bunch. While Briles returns, so does his QB, Hoover, who is coming off of setting the TCU record for passing yards. The Big 12 is wide open, but the Horned Frogs feel like they have been built from the ground up following their national championship appearance in 2023. Don't be surprised to see this team have another serious run in '25.
Recruiting: TCU had the #1 class in '25ando '2,3 sans Texas and Oklahom,a as they have moved on. They also had the #2 class in '24 in the Big 12. They are recruiting at a high leve,l and this is a great indicator for the program.
Portal: 15th of 1. This is not a worry as this team has a lot of continuity heading into '2,5, allowing them to be selective. Losing C Brockenmeyer to Miami was certainly a loss, but that was about it.
Additions:Barnes from UTSA looks to recapture form, and Dwyer WR comes over from Idaho. His 89.1 PFF grade tops out as returning receivers, but obviously at a different level of competition.
Roster Intrigue: Hoover QB threw for almost 4,000 yards, McAlister WR, and Clark (DB). TCU will have plenty of weapons in the skill areas. The defense, which was graded as the best cover defense according to PFF, brought back all-Big 12 performer Clark. They also return a decent bit on the line with some players who missed '24 back for '25.
Statistical pulse: TCU graded out #1 in receiving offense, and #2 in passing offense in Big 12 play last year. I expect that to continue this season as the QB is back and weapons are still intact, minus Raiders bound Bech. TCU also ranked 6th in the country in passing yards per game. This offense could be dangerous.
2025 Schedule: Similar to opening with Deion and the Buffs, TCU starts this season on the road to face Belichick and UNC. SMU at home in the rivalry game will make for a tough out-of-conference matchup. At K-State, Arizona St, and BYU, the road slate in this conference is a bit daunting. They get Colorado, Iowa St, and Baylor at home for some of the Big 12 hopefuls. The schedule gives me more pause than other Big 12 title hopefuls.
Prediction: TCU enters 2025 as a team that can and will contend for the title. 10-2 is my guess. Road trips to Manhattan and Provo will be too much, and the Horned Frogs go 10-2 and just miss out on a trip to play in Arlington. If this schedule weren't so daunting, TCU would be my pick for the conference. The way it sets up, though, makes it a challenge!
Actionable to consider: Firstly, we have to consider the moon-shot, Hoover to win the Heisman is +250000, which to me feels absurd given the numbers he could put up in this offense. If TCU has a magical run, he will be in the conversation, and like my mentality with Robertson at Baylor, he will have to put up gaudy numbers for this team to be successful. TCU Moneyline v UNC -126, TCU had an interesting learning lesson in this similar type spot a few years back, welcoming Deion and the Buffs on opening weekend, but as a 20-plus point favorite, and lost outright. This team has miles more continuity and should be considered in a different class than the Tar Heels this season. The line has moved in TCU's favor, but there is value for what should be a TCU win, and a comfortable one. Lastly, keep your eyes out for that ASU matchup as it will be a short rest for both teams. If ASU is banged up or loses to Baylor the week before, look to back TCU as ASU's biggest question mark is the secondary, seems like a spot for this skill position group to show up big!
