Service Academies 2025 Football Preview
View From Afar
Air Force
The Falcons came off a 9-4 record in '23 and entered '24 dead last in returning production. For those Troy Calhoun believers (myself included), we turned a blind eye to the realities of this roster and how challenging it is in this day and age at the service academies. If you laid those points in the first week of the season against Merrimack(yes, that is degenerate gambling), you certainly realized things were looking grim in Colorado Springs. But after a 1-7 start, you have to love the 4 wins to end the season 5-7. Mind you, this is a program that has won 9 or more games six times since 2014! Continuity at coordinator positions is key. Prior to last season, Air Force had a legitimately salty defense. Last season, they gave up over 30-plus to Wyoming and Navy, and New Mexico hung 52 on them. The defense needs to sort itself if this team is going to go bowling in '25.
Army
What an electric ride '24 was for the Black Knights! You'd be lying if you said you didn't start checking the Army to make the playoff odds after their drubbing of UAB, or panic as you saw Bryson Daily's Heisman odds come down week after week. For those brave ones out there who chucked on them to win the American, I salute you. The Black Knights went 12-2 and honestly had Boise slipped up down the stretch, could very well have been in the playoff mix had they beaten Navy. Jeff Monken, who has been at the helm for 11 years now, must have been none too pleased to lose out on the Commander-in-Chief's trophy. Cody Worley enters year six as offensive coordinator and had Army ranked as the #1 offense on PFF last season. Bryson Daily captured the hearts of college football fans, throwing for 9 TD and rushing for 32, a true American hero! He operated behind the Joe Moore award-winning offensive line(the Best line in the country), so this team had some serious ability. We all got a reminder of the limits of these programs, though, when Notre Dame blew the doors of the Black Knights 49-14 in Yankee Stadium. A lot of serious talent by the Army's standard heads off to serve. We certainly appreciate and salute those, but 2025 will be very interesting to see if 2024 was just a perfect storm to get to 12 wins, or if double-digit W seasons are sustainable at West Point.
Navy
Year two of Brian Newberry at the Naval Academy was undoubtedly a big success. Having not been to a bowl since 2019, this team flew relatively under the radar to a 10-3 season and the Commander-in-Chief's trophy. Memphis was a team with a ton of buzz going into last season as a playoff G-5 contender, so we all raised an eyebrow when Navy hung 56 on them in a victory in week 3. The back-to-back losses to Notre Dame and Rice indeed killed any buzz about this team, playoff-wise, but ultimately, this team handled Army to finish any chatter about the Black Knights, and had a nice bowl victory over Oklahoma, the first time Navy beat an SEC program since 2004! The Midshipmen are probably the darling of this group going into 2025 with QB Blake Horvath back for his second full year of starting, his Offensive coordinator Cronic is also is back in his second year so I like the growth and continuity aspect. The expectations are different this season, Navy is +440 to win the AAC so is certainly no long shot, the Academies are certainly not flying under the radar this season!
Roster Tidbits
Air Force
QB Josh Johnson will likely start, not sure what to expect there. I'm going to make a pretty obvious statement here: it seems that the run game at Air Force will need to be really solid for this offense not to be anemic. Luckily, we have some decent backs and seemingly OK line returning! Dylan Carson had three 100 plus rushing yards in the last 4 weeks of the season, Frew had a career high rushing yards in last game of the season, momentum! Quite a bit returns on the o-line with Cooley being the standout. Cade Harris is the receiver that can just about do it all. Defensively it seems there is question marks. Peyton Zdroik was the second highest DT in the country on PFF last year, that's a huge retuning piece. The line backing corp and secondary seem's to be where things get dicey. Losing transfers to Michigan State and Southern Utah out of this unit hurt's. Let's see in a bit if there will be QB's on that schedule who can do some damage to that secondary!
Army
Man, this Army team seems to lose a lot. 86th nationally in returning production and the lowest of the three service academies. Daily the QB is a significant loss, but losing Modozie to Georgia and Udoh to Arizona State, with those guy's likely to have an impact at there new destination is a massive blow. The Joe Moore award-winning line brings back a couple of starters, with Small(C) being extremely highly rated last year, as well as Gennarelli. When you dig deep though this honestly could just be a retooling not a total rebuild, I think Army will be excellent again at the 0-line. Dewayne Coleman should replace Daily at QB. He led the Black Knights to a comfortable victory when Daily missed the Air Force game a year ago. Noah Short will likely be a big-time weapon in the offense, and Briggs Bartosh seems to be a name to keep an eye on. Defensively this group could be pretty solid, Thomas and Fortner will hold down the LB room and are the team captains. The secondary returns quite a bit of solid performers from a year ago, if Harris-Miller can have a solid year on the D-line this unit as a whole could be nasty. Look there is no escaping this team lost a lot, graduation and even the damn transfer portal! But from my vantage point, this team still has enough to keep things humming.
Navy
Horvath returning is instrumental for this group. His primary weapon should be Eli Heidenreich, his 6 receiving TDs last season tied the school record. Purvis(G) will look to be a leader on a 0-line that appears a little thin compared to last season's group. I like some of the weapon's but the line is a concern with how Navy is operating offensively. The defense returns first team all AAC selection Landon Robinson in the middle of the D-line, a huge returnee. Rayuan Lane was a sixth round draft pick to the Jaguars so losing that on the back end is certainly going to hurt.
Statistical Pulse
Air Force
Air Force conceded the second fewest penalty yards per game a year ago, Calhoun still has his guys playing with discipline, no surprise! Surprisingly Air Force was 86th in turnover margin per game a year ago. The Air Force had the second-lowest coverage grade via PFF a year ago, not loving that with the roster questions in the secondary.
Army
Army lead the nation in rushing yards per game, 300 yards per! Army were all the way on the other end of the spectrum finishing dead last in passing yards per game. Army was +11 in the turnover column a year ago, coming in at 12th in the nation. Army ranked #1 in the country in PFF grade for offense and run blocking. Army was 4th in the nation at just north of 77% on fourth down conversions a year ago.
Navy
The Midshipmen ranked 6th in the nation with 247 yards rushing per contest last year. Navy fumbled 7 times in a loss to ND last season, losing 5 of them. Navy was number 1 in the nation at just over 80% in TD percentage when entering Red Zone, that's excellent execution!
Schedule
Air Force 2025 Schedule Preview
Bucknell then a off week! The early off week is surely none to pleasing to Calhoun! On the road for Navy, at UNLV, and at San Jose State and of course Colorado State to close will be road challenges, also this ain't your punching bag of UCONN's in the past, this team might have some juice! Boise State, Army are among the toughest test's to come to the Springs. The start is key here, Utah State is breaking in a new staff, that is absolute must win if you want go bowling, Hawaii will likely chuck it around a good amount so getting them at home is key, as they could do severe damage to that aforementioned questionable secondary.
Army 2025 Schedule Preview
Seeing at Kansas State was fun in week 2! At Tulane, East Carolins, Air Force, and UTSA will be the daunting road tests. The home slate is very manageable, with a massive collision of course with Navy at the end, I am sure last season's let down will be a strong motivator.
Navy 2025 Schedule Preview
Wow, this schedule could see Navy off to a 6?7? maybe 8 and 0 start if they keep this thing rolling. They need to get those win's early though, they finish at Notre Dame, USF, At Memphis, Army in Baltimore. Daunting.
2025 Services Academies Football Prediction
Air Force
I'm the kind of guy that almost blindely bet's Air Force win total over for the year. So please take what I say with a grain of salt. Having said that, I do like what this team will be like on the o-line and backfield. They should be able to lean on opponents. Defensively I certainly have my concerns, but how many offense's will really be able to undress the secondary? Boise, Hawaii, San Jose State, CSU? Otherwise, I think Calhoun will have his boy's competitive, 7-5 for the Falcons.
Army
Monken really got this thing heading in the right direction. I hate that this team has so many losses and the portal affecting them is such a gut punch. But I still think this team has the bones to be successful. The o-line will once again be solid, and I just think the coaching staff particularly on offense really know how to execute at a high level. The other thing I like is this defense seems to be more reliable front to back. I say Army goes 9-3 and wins the Commander-in-Chief's trophy.
Navy
Navy definitely has the highest floor of any of these teams. They will likely win 8 games at minimum, the schedule to open is an absolute gift. However, I am concerned with the offensive line, and generally the defense overall. The d-line should be solid but question marks are pretty apparent other than that. Horvath will put up gaudy numbers, and Navy goes 8-4.
Actionable
Air Force: Air Force over 5.5 wins(-170DK) Troy Calhoun is getting these boys back to a bowl! I am a sucker for this program, but come on. Six wins with the likes of Bucknell, Utah State, and New Mexico on the schedule is very doable.
Army: Army to win 10+ games(+380 DK). Tulane and UTSA are the two games I really struggle to see this team winning. Yet, having said that, this program beat both those teams last season! It quite honestly could come down to the Navy game at the end of the season!
Navy: 8.5 feels about right for this team. At first glance, I wanted to hammer the under. But then the schedule cooled my jets significantly. Let's get ridiculous for a bit here! Hear me out, Blake Horvath will not win the Heisman, but good lord, 300 to 1?? I think there is a world where he could get an invite to New York if Navy click's into place again. OK, this team will once again take a drubbing at the hands of Notre Dame, but imagine they go 11-1 and he puts up ridiculous numbers. Remember the Heisman is a popularity contest, are you telling me that if close ESPN wouldn't want a Naval Academy QB at the ceremony!! Give me Horvath +300000 to win the Heisman, and you bet your ass I am hedging that ticket like crazy when the time comes!!
