Penn State Nittany Lions 2025 Football Preview, Prediction, Betting Ideas

Penn State Nittany Lions

2024 Record:13-3 (College Football Playoff Semifinalist)

2024 Over/under: 9.5 (Over hits)

Looking back at ’24: What was fascinating about the first iteration of the twelve-team playoff is that it certainly gave programs like Penn State a chance to play meaningful football into the new year. James Franklin certainly would have been feeling the pinch to get this squad into the new look tournament, and ultimately, he did that, losing a stunner to a banged-up Notre Dame team in the semi-finals. However, it wasn’t all smooth sailing for the Nittany Lions if we are honest. A sluggish game vs Bowling Green saw them trailing at home at halftime, only winning by 7. While a trip to LA saw them down 14 to USC at half, and needing OT to beat the Trojans. Losing to Ohio State at home pushed his record to 1-10 vs the Buckeyes; the fan base was once again none too pleased with that performance. Alas, they did manage to get back to the Big 10 title game, and played a hard-fought game, ultimately out-gaining Oregon, but falling short 45-37. Beating SMU at home in the Kevin Jennings horror show, and Boise State was the favorable path this team had to the Semis. This team certainly had some juice down the stretch. Having said that, they rode a favorable draw to the semi-final, and Franklin yet again didn’t get the signature win. This team brings back a truckload of talent. Penn State feels like a program that is all in on 2025. The reality is that James Franklin is 1-19 vs the top 5 teams. With aspirations on a ‘natty this season, that’s going to need to change in a big way if this team wants to hit its ceiling.

Key Losses: Penn State, in all likelihood, lost their best player on both the offensive and defensive side of the ball from a year ago. Abdul Carter is going #3 overall to the Giants; he led the nation with 24 tackles for loss a year ago. Tyler Warren, the 14th overall pick to the Colts and Mackey winner, led the Big 10 in receptions a year ago. Kobe King was the 4th highest graded LB on PFF in the BIG 10 in ‘24. In total, 5 Penn State players were drafted.

Program Trends: Recruiting ranking Big10 2026(summer):5th 2025: 5th 2024: 3rd

Returning production ranking Big10 2025: 6th 2024:5th

Portal rankings BIG10: 10th

James Franklin certainly has things humming in Happy Valley, this team is recruiting just a smidge under the likes of Oregon and Ohio State, but certainly is in the conversation. Malachi Goodman was the big 5 star get of the offseason, 6-6 320 is no joke! Luke Reynolds enters his second year at TE, a 5 star from ’24, this could be a huge year filling in the void left by Tyler Warren, be on the lookout for a huge season.

Offense: Andy Kotelnicki enters year two at the helm of the offense. Widely regarded as one of the best and most innovative coordinators in the game, he will look to get the most out of returning QB Drew Allar. Most places you look have Allar pegged as a first-round pick after this season. At 6’5 and having thrown for over 3,000 yards a year ago, it seems on paper a lot to like. But vs Ohio State, he threw for 146 yards and a pick, vs Oregon, 226 yards, 3 TDs, 2 INTS, and vs Notre Dame in the semis, 135 yards and a pick. There could certainly be some improvement in the big spots. He will be handing off to the most dynamic backfield duo in the country. Kaytron Allen and Nick Singleton each rushed for over 1,000 yards last season, an embarrassment of riches at RB. The offensive line will undoubtedly be in contention for the Joe Moore Award (Best line in the country), Ioane is back after an All-Big 10 season, Donkah comes back from injury, while the man who replaced him, Rucci, does as well. All it boils down to is this unit is absolutely loaded, and they probably will be one of, if not the best, offensive lines in the country. I think the aforementioned Reynolds is in for a big year at TE. He could be an NFL guy in a couple of seasons. While they added a bunch in the WR room through the portal, Devonte Ross (TROY) and Trebor Pena(Syracuse) are the standouts. If Allar takes a step and meshes with this new look WR unit, Penn State could be silly good on offense.

Defense: One of the most significant moves of the offseason was Jim Knowles being poached from Ohio State to lead the Penn State defense. He’s long been seen as the premier coordinator, and it certainly plays into the “all in” feel for the Nittany Lions. The defense returns serious firepower at every level, Zane Durant and Dani Dennis-Sutton are stars on the line, and Rojas at LB housed one of the INTS vs SMU in the playoffs. While A.J. Harris and Zakee Wheatley garnered All-Big 10 ’24 at CB and Safety. It is pretty challenging to nit-pick this roster; maybe they don’t have that upside of Carter, but there is so much talent throughout. There are too many up-and-comers to go through them all, who could shine, but Zuriah Fisher is a player who missed last season through injury. He has been on the team since 2020 and has been generating some buzz in the offseason. Let's see if he can make an impact off the edge.

Roster in a nutshell: If you want to point to the WR room on offense, or maybe the D-line being a touch unproven with Carter gone, or the Safety being young outside of Wheatley, be my guest. But ultimately, you must nitpick. This roster is loaded to the gills. It’s put up or shut up time for Franklin.

Statistical Pulse: Penn State led the Big 10 with 202 yards per game on the ground last season. According to Bill Connelly, this team had the #1 ranked lineup consistency in the nation, so they stayed healthy last season. Defensively, Penn State led the conference in tackles for loss and was second in sacks.

Schedule: Even the biggest Penn State detractors will look at this team, with this schedule, and realize the floor is 9-3. Franklin returns to his house of horrors on the road to Ohio State and a tough road trip to Iowa. Outside of that, Oregon and Indiana coming to Beaver Stadium are the only games you could realistically see this team losing(and a couple of those are improbable).

Prediction: Like I said, the floor is 9-3. The challenge with evaluating this team is the Franklin and Allar aspect. Franklin has clearly underwhelmed in the big games, it's been discussed ad nauseam, and the record speaks for itself. While Allar has absolutely feasted on the lesser teams, and certainly hasn’t wowed when stepping up in competition. Having said all that, the o-line and RB combination will be punishing for opponents. The defense will be buttoned up and extremely salty, though I think Carter will be missed more than seems to be anticipated. I say the Nittany Lions go 10-2 with losses to Oregon and Ohio State. Until Franklin proves he can win these games against the top dogs, it’s quite frankly pretty challenging seeing this team winning the National Championship.

Game to circle: November 8th vs Indiana. Cignetti will be desperate for a signature win himself this season. He indeed ran his mouth off pretty good last season and never got the performance out of his team in the key games. Indiana also did very well against the run a year ago. I don’t know if the Hoosiers pull off the upset, but Penn State will be coming off a slugfest with Ohio State the week prior. If this line is above a TD or pushing double digits, I’m taking the Hoosiers to keep this ball game tight.

Actionable: If you are buying this Penn State team, a lot of the value has gone dry on the conference title odds, coming in from over 4 to 1 to now +240. If you are willing to chuck a big wage down, DraftKings has -250 for 10 plus wins. I know it’s seriously juicy, but remember, 9 wins feels like the absolute floor for this team. However, Penn State has won 10 games in the regular season 3 years running. I don’t hate calling my shot and betting on Penn State to get exactly 10 wins (+200).