2025 Mountain West Football Preview
2025 will be the last year of the current iteration of the Mountain West. As someone who grew up in Colorado, seeing the conference lose momentum is a disappointment, with the likes of Boise State, Colorado State, Fresno State, among others, heading to the PAC-12 after this season. This sets up for an exciting campaign. Boise is the no-question favorite, but when you really dig in, a lot of intriguing teams and wagers emerge!
12) Utah State Aggies 2025 Prediction
Things I like: New coach Bronco Mendehal did wonders with a New Mexico program that was on the brink. 5 wins were impressive, as it had an over/under of 2.5. He goes back to his roots with his family in Utah. Coach spoke this offseason about how that was a major driving force behind the decision. It sounds like a situation where he has the long term in mind, saying a lot about character and cultural development.
Despite 38 outgoing and 27 incoming transfers, we have a returning QB! Bryson Barnes threw for 856 yards last season and tacked on 530 on the ground. His dual-threat ability will benefit greatly, as Mendenhall did wonders with Devon Dampier last season.
2025 Aggies Prediction: I would not wager a dime against a team coached by Mendenhall. But man, this roster is thin. With the coach speaking about setting the foundation, I think he knows this could be a tough season. Despite that, they will compete their tails off, and I wouldn't be one bit surprised if they snuck up on a few teams this season.
11) New Mexico 2025 Prediction
Things I like: Well, we essentially are going to find how a 10-4 FCS team from last year will fare in the Mountain West. For all those times we have dreamed of Montana State or North Dakota State moving up to FBS, this will be a learning experience of how they might do! Jason Eck is hired to replace Bronco Mendenhall. Eck comes over from Idaho and has brought the cavalry with him!
Eck's son, Jaxton Eck, was an FCS All-American a year ago. He follows his dad to Albuquerque. Last season, he had eight games with double-digit tackles, including a monster 14-tackle performance vs Oregon.
2025 New Mexico Prediction: I mean? It's a total wildcard, the two other names who garnered FCS All-American buzz were edge Keyshawn James-Newby, who also follows coach Eck from Idaho, 10.5 sacks and 14.5 TFLs is nothing to turn your nose at. Scottre Humphrey put up over 1,300 yards rushing at Montana State last season. If the Lobos' offensive line can get some push, he could have a field day. The challenge with the Lobos is that they visit Ann Arbor for a non-conference game vs Michigan, LA for a trip to face UCLA, as well as league trips to Boise, San Jose State, and UNLV. Eck had better have his boys buttoned up because that schedule is not friendly.
10) San Diego State Aztecs 2025 Prediction
Things I like: Coach Sean Lewis has reunited with his offensive coordinator at Kent State, Matt Johnson. Kent State under Lewis punched well above their weight, and offensively, it put Lewis on the map. Johnson has been brought on to work with the QBs at San Diego State.
Things I dislike: Jayden Denegal was named the starting QB for the Aztecs. With the branded Aztec fast offense, a reliable QB is a must. Denegal transferred over from Michigan, where he never got a look-in. As mentioned in this article, with the QB play in Ann Arbor last season, it's a bit alarming that Denegal didn't get a sniff. Let's see if he proves us wrong.
While San Diego State returns a bit on defense, they only have one player on the Defensive line that is 300 pounds plus, that is transfer Teivis Tuioti, who didn't see much action at CSU last season. The Aztecs were 10th in the conference, giving up 207 yards per game on the ground last season. If this team can't hold up against the run, that experience they have in the secondary won't matter much.
2025 Aztecs Prediction: If Denegal proves the doubters wrong, and the Aztecs can shore up against the run, there is hope. But I think a 6-6 season is probably the best you can ask for in year 2 of Sean Lewis.
9) Fresno State Bulldogs 2025 Prediction
Things I dislike: EJ Warner, who transferred over from Rice, was named the starting QB. The last two seasons he has thrown the most interceptions in the AAC. He can put up yards, but taking care of the football has been an issue.
The leading pass catchers from a year ago on this team are all gone. Mac Dalena is making waves as a UDFA with the Chiefs, Raylen Sharpe transferred out to Arkansas, and Jalen Moss to Arizona State. It's not a good sign when the departing players are stepping up in level and looking good while doing it. Fresno has had significant losses in the skill positions.
Similarly, the top tacklers are all gone on defense. Phoenix Jackson will be trying to help Baylor in the Big 12. He led the Bulldogs in sacks last season. Jacob Holmes was part of UVA's spending spree this offseason. He led Fresno in TFLS.
2025 Bulldogs Prediction: New coach Matt Entz will have a job getting the Bulldogs to bowl eligibility. I am taking the under on this group for 2025.
8) Nevada Wolfpack 2025 Prediction
Things I like: Coaching continuity. Coach Jeff Choate retained most of his staff and talked about adding young coaches to each position group to gain experience and young exuberance with each unit.
Nevada had fourth-quarter leads against SMU, Boise State, and San Jose State, amongst others, and managed to only win three games a year ago. Special teams were a big reason why. They were 10th out of 12 in both punt average and field goal percentage. A D2 All-American kicker and Aussie punter are hopefully a remedy for the special team woes from a year ago!
2025 Wolfpack Prediction: Nevada is going to be feisty this season. Choate discussed addition by subtraction on the defense, as it is almost an entirely new unit. The Wolfpack have talked about trying to get to a bowl this season. The home Non-conference games vs Sacramento State and Middle Tennessee will be imperative if they want to achieve that goal.
7) UNLV Rebels 2025 Prediction
Thing I like: Hiring Dan Mullen was a clear signal of intent from UNLV as a program that wants to dominate the new iteration of the Mountain West. As of now, the University has elected to stay on with the conference, as many of the big names will be departing for the PAC-12. According to Bill Connelly's coach ranking, Mullen is the sixth-ranked coach in the nation. He joins after a few years on the headset at ESPN, but his offensive mind will surely flourish in Vegas. It's a splashy hire, and I believe year two or three could pay serious dividends.
Thing's I dislike: The second-lowest returning production in conference, outside of the Running back Thomas, this offense returns nobody. It is all new for UNLV, the lines on both sides of the ball, QB, pass catchers, you name it.
Georgia, Miami, Michigan, LSU. These are the kinds of schools UNLV went to grab their transfers from. It's a lottery ticket! These guys might have the talent, but I fear this team has a ton of quit factor if things don't go to plan. I typically like to see guys who have proven production on the way up. Of course, if it hits, this prediction will look silly as the talent and body types are different. But Mullen will have a job at hand getting a culture and buy-in installed off the jump.
Zach Arnett was hired on as defensive coordinator with Mullen and ended up leaving in the spring due to personal reasons. So with all the changes, a mid-spring shake-up on the defense makes things that much more difficult. When your new coordinator Corey Dennis is talking in early summer about just getting to know players names, that to me is not a good sign with the season just around the corner.
Player that's flashing: Jake Pope is a name that has come up quite often this offseason. The former 4-star safety, originally from Alabama, transferred to Georgia last season. Incredibly high pedigree, and with the lack of continuity on the defense, his experience and leadership will be vital.
2025 Rebels Prediction: Ultimately, the Rebels are a lottery ticket. The outcomes are vast for this group. I settled on a 6-6ish record because neither transfer quarterback inspires much faith in me. Colandrea, the UVA transfer, had the second-lowest QB rating in the ACC last season, and the second-most Interceptions, while Alex Orji couldn't win the job at Michigan, and we all saw Michigan's QB play a year ago.
6) Hawaii Rainbow Warriors 2025 Prediction
Thing's I like: You're not going to see any Hawaii preview, or Mountain West preview for that matter, that won't be gushing about returning QB Micah Alejado. The reason being in the last game of 2024 with New Mexico needing a win to get to bowl eligibility, Alejado shredded them in his lone start for 469 yards and 5 TDS. An absolutely scintillating performance. I like that this offseason head coach Timmy Chang went out and brought in Micah Alejado's high school coach Chad Kapanui to coach the QBs. The Rainbow Warriors have their guy, spending the resources to make sure he feels comfortable and maxes out his potential.
The Hawaii secondary graded out as the #2 coverage unit in the Mountain West, and they return their star man, Peter Manuma, who graded out the highest returning player in conference at safety. Manuma will be an integral part of the defense, and with Hawaii playing Stanford week 0 on CBS, a lot of people will see his abilities.
Players that are flashing: Nick Cenacle and Pofele Ashlock are a dynamic WR pairing that will give serious juice to the Rainbow Warriors' air-it-out style. Each had north of 60 receptions last season, and each nabbed 6 TDS. What I love seeing is how much playing for and representing Hawaii means to these guys; a big year could be loading for them and Alejado.
2025 Rainbow Warriors Prediction: Hawaii will go bowling for the first time in the Timmy Change era. 14 starters return, and a young, exciting QB will give this team serious juice. My Air Force prediction could come unstuck early if the Rainbow Warriors expose that young secondary. Hawaii has grown into a solid team for 2025!
5) Colorado State Rams 2025 Prediction
Things I like: When you return a QB that has the chance to be the program's All-time leader in Wins and passing yards, you have to feel confident. Braden Fowler-Nicolosi has that chance in 2025, as CSU looks to air it out more in 2025, he will look to get back to the numbers of 2023 when he threw for 3460 yards and 16 TDS.
The bodies CSU has on the defensive line are certainly in a different category than many of the other teams in this league. Multiple 300+ players in the middle to stop the run, including Kentucky transfer Dennious Jackson, who comes in at 330 pounds. Off the edge, they return Mukendi Wa-Kalonji, who had 5.5 TFLs last year and is looking good in camp, as well as Kenyon Agurs, who had 4 TFLS.
Things I dislike: The Rams have a new defensive staff, including defensive coordinator Tyson Summers (though it's not his first stint at the school). The six leading tacklers from last year have transferred to Cal and SMU or graduated; this defense is a total re-tooling.
Tory Horton was only 35 yards away from breaking the all-time Mountain West record for receiving yards in a career, and unfortunately, got injured in game 6. Fantasy Football players keep an eye on him as he will be lining up with the Seahawks now after a glittering Collegiate career, which will be a massive loss for the Rams.
Name that's flashing: Linebacker Owen Long is the name that keeps popping up as someone who needs to have a big-time season for this defense to hold up. In his freshman campaign, he racked up 45 tackles. He could compete for All-Conference as a sophomore. His leadership will be imperative for the Rams.
2025 Rams Prediction: Colorado State won the inaugural Mountain West championship outright in 2000. I wanted to believe in a storybook finish to their tenure in the conference. But with so many changes that will require another massive portal haul to paper over, I couldn't get there. Fowler-Nicolosi has the chance to have his name in Ram lore with the likes of Bradlee Van Pelt, but for this team to be in championship contention, he will need to be out of this world.
4) Air Force Falcons 2025 Prediction
I did a full preview of the Falcons on July 4th with the other service academies, so I will keep this brief. Continuity is something that is sorely missed in this conference. The Falcons will have that in spades this year. Defensively, they will be young, especially the secondary, which gives me pause with the likes of Hawaii and San Jose State on the docket. But this offense will pound the rock, and when you look at a lot of the D-lines in this conference, they are light and thin depth-wise. That will bode well for an Air Force team that returns Dylan Carson, the RB averaged 111 yards per game in the last 4 of the season once he got healthy, if this team was buttoned up at QB (as of writing we still don't know who the starter will be) I would have considered them championship game contenders.
Shane ONeill
3) San Jose State 2025 Prediction
Things I like: Coach Ken Niumatalolo talked this offseason about how returning starter Walker Eget had a remarkable offseason, getting his body in incredible shape and dialing in the little things. When you hear Eget speak, you can tell he is a born leader. For a guy who only took over halfway through last season, he graded out as the highest QB on PFF returning in the conference. Eget threw for 385 or more 3 times last season, including a bonkers 446 vs Boise. The fact that he has leveled up is scary for Mountain West defenses.
Hearing some good reviews about Utah transfer Vili Taufatofua will be music to Spartan fans' ears. This group looks light in the Defensive line, so having extra juice there will be imperative. Gafa Faga is the 300-pounder in the middle of the line that will be instrumental in whether or not San Jose State competes for the Mountain West title. His health and high-level performance are key; having some running mates will take a bit of pressure off.
Coaches have been talking about solidifying a starting 5 much offensive line much earlier in the offseason than last season, hopefully that can sustain the Spread and Shred offensive approach they like to run in San Jose.
Thing I don't like: Like Boise, San Jose State is replacing a couple of one-of-one type competitors. WR Nick Nash was genuinely one of the best receivers in the nation last year. Replacing his 16 touchdowns and over 1,300 yards of receiving will be no easy feat! Defensively, you lose Soane Toia, he was top 12 in the conference in Sacks and TFLs, a first-team all Mountain West contributor.
Name that's flashing: The obvious name is Floyd Chalk IV. As flashy as the offense is, having a good running back is critical. Chalk put up over 700 yards on the ground a year ago and had 10 touchdowns to his name.
2025 San Jose State Prediction: I see 6-2 in conference play for the Spartans, also, with the tiebreaker going to Wyoming, as I have them beating San Jose State at home. Having said that, Walker Eget taking a significant step could have the Spartans duking it out with Boise in the championship game.
2) Wyoming Cowboys 2025 Prediction
Things I like: When the coach of Wyoming, Jay Sawvel, says this might be the deepest linebacking corps in his time at Wyoming. Or that this might be the largest size he has had on the defensive line since he arrived in Laramie in 2020, it certainly piqued my interest. This program has had 3 Linebackers drafted since 2020, and last year removed, is known for its stout defense.
Wyoming might have the most electric pass-catching group in the league. Go quickly check the Mackey Award (Best TE) futures and throw a little down on John Michael Gyllenborg. He only started six games a year ago due to injury, but was still second on the team in receptions, receiving yards, and receiving TDs. A clean bill of health for the 6'5 Gyllenborg will open up this offense. Couple him with Chris Durr JR. and Jaylen Sargent; this group could be elite. Durr Jr. was a true freshman a year ago and led the team in receptions, while Sargent led the team in receiving yards. This trio will give QB Kaden Anderson plenty of options.
The offensive line will have tons of continuity. At this level, continuity is scarce, the transfer portal ravages the G-5 teams, but Wyoming managed to keep most of its offensive line intact. Typically, when I have looked at the PFF grades, if a player is one of the highest in the conference, typically, he is a transfer in from a lower level. Not here, Jack Walsh is the second-highest returning C in the conference, while 6'5 320 Caden Barnett is the second-highest graded tackle. Throw in 6'5 313 Wes King, and 6'7 300 Jake Davies as returning starters, and that had me dreaming of a run to the Mountain West title game for the Cowboys.
Lastly, Wyoming has, in my eyes, a favorable draw schedule-wise. Three of the first four league games at home, with the only road game being a short trip to Air Force, and with the electric atmosphere at War Memorial Stadium, Wyoming is in a great position going into 2025.
Thing I dislike: QB Kaden Anderson won the job halfway through last season. He was just ok outside of the gaudy numbers he put up against New Mexico's atrocious defense. Couple that with someone who has battled multiple serious injuries in the past, and you just hope he can stay healthy. They did manage to bring in Mason Drube, the highest-rated recruit in the state of Wyoming for 2025. Let's see if the freshman can nip at Anderson's heels as the season approaches.
Name that's flashing: Gary Rutherford was a name that coach Jay Sayvel mentioned a few times this summer. The linebacker has received high praise as a leader and could be the torchbearer for a Wyoming linebacking corps that always seems to produce serious talent.
2025 Cowboys Prediction: It is certainly going out on a limb to think Wyoming will go from 3-9 to the Mountain West Championship game. But if the defense under the younger Bohl's tutelage gets back on track this season, it's possible. The potentially last Border War vs Colorado State is massive. Getting UNLV and San Jose State at War Memorial Stadium is a huge reason this group can go 6-2 in the Mountain West play.
1) Boise State Broncos 2025 Prediction
Why Boise State is Favored For 2025
Firstly, start with the coach, Spencer Danielson. The faith-based man has a 15-3 record since becoming the interim coach in 2023. Remember, Boise was in shambles before he took over and led them to the Mountain West championship. He followed that up with a sensational run to the college football playoff. He speaks so highly of the people of Boise, the community, and the Institution, and has been with the program since 2017. This guy is Boise through and through.
The lines look different than the rest of the league. On the offensive side of the ball, Kage Casey was an All-American by a lot of different publications. According to PFF, he is the highest graded returning lineman in the conference. Roger Carreon, another 6'5 310 monster, also returns. Mason Randolph was a freshman All-American in 2022, who was banged up off and on last season; they won't be blocking for Ashton Jeanty, but this group should be solid. Defensively, the size of the Broncos stands out compared to the league. Hawaii transfer Dion Washington graded out solid last season and comes in at 6'2 305. Lopez Sanusi, who has been generating a lot of buzz, is 6'3 307, born in Ireland. Sanusi is a breakout star candidate. The size will allow guys like Jayden Virgin-Morgan to repeat his success off the edge. Last season, he was second in the Mountain West with 10 sacks and was first-team all-conference.
Former four-star recruit Chris Marshall is back and healthy at WR, with the loss of Cam Camper, the leading receiver from a year ago; him hitting the ground running will be important for the offense.
The schedule outside of a trip to South Bend is quite favorable. The first game of the season at South Florida will be a must-win for playoff implications, and the spread has moved in the Bulls' favor.
Concerns For the Boise State Broncos 2025 Season
The obvious would be the key departures to Ashton Jeanty, but also don't forget about kicker Jonah Dalmas, who was the all-time leader in points in Mountain West history, and the current kicking battle doesn't seem to be going great. Throw in Ahmed Hassanein, who was absolutely electric at times last season on the defensive line, and the star power is significant that left the building.
Name that's flashing: Sire Gaines. The Redshirt Freshman running back has big shoes to fill. But given what we saw at times last season, he could be set to take that step. Gaines ran for 110 yards in the opener last season against GA Southern. A week 3 injury shut him down for the season, but reports from camp and the coaching staff seem to have high expectations for this kid.
Prediction: The floor here is 9-3. Danielson has emphasized how this is now clearly QB Maddex Madsen's team, which is clearly understandable, the returning starter, but he didn't exactly wow in some big spots last season. Don't forget, this team didn't exactly dog walk the likes of Wyoming or Nevada last season (both only won 3 games). This team has an undeniable culture and talent level, but I'm not so sure this team runs the Mountain West schedule without all the star power from a year ago.
