Minnesota Golden Gophers 2025 Football Preview, Prediction, Betting Ideas

Minnesota Golden Gophers

2024 Record: 8-5

2024 Over/under: Opened 4.5(Over hits)

Looking back at '24: When I saw 4.5 wins before last season for P.J. Fleck's Minnesota, I considered taking out a second mortgage to get as much down on the over as possible. Fleck's program always seems to overachieve when backed into a corner. Can they find some consistency and remain competitive in the new look Big 10? It was amazing that 8-5 was solid, but it certainly could have been better! Let's not forget the debacles in the kicking game in week 1 vs North Carolina. Or the fact that this team was inside the 10-yard line late in the fourth quarter against Penn State, a TD would have put them in front! I also love how this team was 2-3 after week 5 (Was getting shaky about that over!) Yet rallied to win 6 of the last 8, including decisive wins over Wisconsin to regain Paul Bunyan's axe, and a decisive bowl win over an albeit decimated Virginia Tech squad. Sneakily, Fleck has won 8 or more games in 4 of his 8 seasons in charge, and non-COVID only dipped below 6 wins in his first year. I'm sure Badger fans will hate this, but Minnesota is starting to feel like the new Wisconsin. It is always plucky, and who knows, maybe a sneaky double-digit win contender?

Key Losses: Max Brosmer was a one-year rental at quarterback. He departs after throwing for over 2,800 yards and 18 TDs. He was picked up as a UDFA by the Vikings. Three payers were drafted to the NFL, including first-team all-Big 10 selection Erserey off the O-Line and Lindenberg, an all-Big 10 performer at LB. Daniel Jackson will be sorely missed at WR. He caught over 800 yards in both '23 and '24. He signed as a UDFA with the Texans.

Program Trends: Recruiting ranking Big10 2026(summer):9th 2025: 15th 2024: 10th

Returning production ranking Big10 2025: 7th 2024:3rd

Portal rankings BIG10: 11th

Things are pointing up for Fleck and Minnesota. He just signed another extension with added retention bonuses. Also, keeping Minnesota's top 3 rated in-state recruits to stay at home is a huge win; it shows he has built strong ties in the area. Emmanuel Karmo, the true freshman from Minneapolis, could see some action in year one. The other 4-star recruit from '25 to watch is WR Bradley Martino. A ding would be losing O-lineman Daniels to Ohio State, especially with what the line brings back.

Offense: Drake Lindsey looks set to replace Brosmer at QB. It does seem that Brosmer was great at providing a mentorship role for the Redshirt freshman last season; those tendencies and habits could be huge, as the 6'5 QB is undoubtedly a bit of an unknown. Greg Harbaugh Jr remains in charge of the offense, which was pretty much middle of the road by all statistical categories in the conference last season. Darius Taylor certainly stands out at RB. If the O-Line holds up, he will rush for over 1,000 yards. Transfers will be key at WR. Javon Tracy was first team all-MAC. Logan Loya caught 4 TDs for UCLA a year ago; they will likely team up with returning Brockington to form a seemingly solid WR corps. The offensive line is where things might get a bit dicey, but when you look at the sheer size of these guys, it is pretty remarkable! Beers and Johnson return as starters, transfers Tafai (6'5,330), Ray(6'6,315), and Marshall (6'6,330) all come over from power 4 schools. Youngster Nathan Roy was a 4-star in '24, comes in at 6'5 305, if this unit gels, it could be interesting.

Defense: Danny Collins gets promoted from within to replace Heatherman, who headed off to Miami in the offseason. Another interesting test for Fleck is that he has lost coordinators in back-to-back seasons on this side of the ball. On paper, this D-line, if it stays healthy, could be very salty. Anthony Smith is back after leading the team in TFLs last season. Eastern and Logan-Redding are returning starters on the interior. Rushawn Lawrence and Steven Curtis are two linemen stepping up in class but graded out well at lower levels, Lawrence from Stony Brook and Curtis from Illinois State, let's see if either hits! Maverick Baranowski graded out well a year ago and made 65 tackles. He will lead the LB room, which looks a bit thin. The secondary will be interesting as the safety position is loaded, while CB seems to be a question mark. Koi Perich was first team all Big 10 as a freshman, had 5 interceptions, and was also an electric factory in the return game. Kerry Brown and Aidan Gousby also graded out quite well. Jaylen Bowden transfers in from North Carolina Central. he probably joins returning Za'Quan Bryan at cornerback. He has good grades but is unproven, no doubt.

Roster in a nutshell: You absolutely hate to do this in a preview. But man, does it seem like a lot is riding on the QB play? If Lindsey hits, this team certainly has a lot of potential. Having said all that, last year was a poor o-line year for Minnesota, so getting that unit back on track in '25 will be instrumental in helping the young QB along. The defense could be very legit, but it seems thin.

Statistical Pulse: Minnesota allowed 73 tackles for loss in '24, ranking 14th in the conference. Minnesota also ranked 14th in average yards per rush last season at 3.7. This line wasn't getting much push a year ago. Koi Perich graded out as the #1 safety in the conference and 11th nationally. Doing so as a freshman is remarkable.

Schedule: At Cal in the non-con will be interesting, even though the Golden Bears seem to be in shambles this offseason. At Ohio State, Iowa, and Oregon, there will be nasty road trips. The home slate in conference is manageable.

Prediction: Man, everything you read out of Minneapolis is glowing reviews about QB Drake Lindsey, couple that with me being a sucker for a P.J. Fleck-coached ball club, and we've got a very intriguing team. My concern is certainly the depth on both lines of scrimmage, and man, that CB unit seems dodgy. But if it all hits and they stay healthy, this team has real upside. I will go 8-4 for the Golden Gophers. For me, this is the team where I could see the biggest variety of outcomes. Would it stun me if they go 5-7? Not really if the QB doesn't live up to expectations, and the CBs get gashed weekly. But could I also see a 10-2? Absolutely, if it swings the other way, I'll meet in the middle and say Fleck has another very competitive team.

Game to circle: October 18th vs. Nebraska. The Cornhuskers will be coming off a trip to Maryland the week prior and will once again be on the road. Minnesota, meanwhile, will have gotten Purdue at home the week prior. I like this spot for the Golden Gophers quite a bit.

Actionable: Minnesota moved from 6.5 to 7.5 over/under this week at many books. If you fancy an over, which I do! You need to lock in over 6.5 at BetMGM(-155). I can't recommend chasing a number at DraftKings (7.5). This team gets Rutgers, Purdue, Nebraska, Michigan State, and Wisconsin all coming to Minneapolis. None of those teams are world beaters. If you want to get cheeky, wait and watch this team week 3 vs Cal. If Lindsey is looking good, this might be a team to sprinkle on to make the playoffs. But recommending it now seems a bit much, let's have some patience, and see if all this buzz out of Minneapolis is legit!

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