Iowa State College Football Preview, Prediction, Betting ideas

Iowa State

View from afar: Iowa State came oh so close to the dream season in '24. A surprising comeback win vs Iowa early in the year and a run to the Big 12 title, couldn't unfortunately be capped off as they were demolished by Arizona State in Arlington. 11-3 was still a heck of a season from Matt Campbell's men finishing it all off with a nice bowl victory vs Miami. Now how does this team follow that up? With both coordinators back this team has a scheme that is in place, and with the offense's leading man Becht (QB), as well as the defenses Orange (DL), this team has a high floor. What I wonder is how high the ceiling is for this group? Campbell is a master at getting his squad to buy in and fight, but will this group have the talent to get into Big 12 title contention once again? I'm not so sure.

Recruiting: Iowa State came in at 13 in the 2025 recruiting ranking, following up a number 9 rank in '24. Campbell usually gets the lower-rated guys coached up, so there is nothing too noteworthy here. Neal (S) was a four-star recruit in '24 and played in all 13 games as a true freshman. It could be worth keeping an eye on him for a true breakout season.

Portal: Iowa State came in at 12 in the 2025 Big 12 ranking. The cyclones are a development program so not much to see here again, only taking 8 players in. Losing the Helton twins on the offensive line is a disappointment to league rivals. Sowell is the big get here the former ECU Wide Receiver has big shoes to fill.

Roster Intrigue: QB Becht is the star man, if he keeps improving, he will cover up a lot of the holes this offense may have at first look. Iowa State lost 4 players to the NFL draft and former WR's Higgins and Noel was one of the best receiver tandems in the country last season (forget the Big 12). The offensive line has many question marks, and the WR room will ask a ton of transfer Sowell. Sama is back in the RB room after his big day out last year v K-State, is that sustainable? Defensively, Orange (DT) is an absolute monster and can wreck any opposition's game plan. Will there be enough around him to thrive? McDonough on the edge will provide support as well Malone. Williams and Noel will need to be sensational on the back end to keep things together as it's a defense that seems to lack depth at line and corner/ safety at least depth that you can count on.

Statistical tidbits: Iowa State was 22nd in the country in turnover margin per game +.6. They also were number 1 in the nation in penalty yards per game so this group is buttoned up. It did surprise me to see Iowa State grade last in run blocking and second last in run defense in the Big 12 from PFF. That's not a recipe for continued success.

Schedule: Iowa State opens the season in Dublin vs Kansas State, a giant measuring stick for both sides. They get Iowa at home this year as Campbell again will try and get the best of the Hawkeyes in Ames. Trips to Colorado, TCU and Oklahoma State are the trickiest road games, BYU, Arizona State will be tough tests at home. The three game stretch of BYU, Arizona State and TCU on the road will define this teams season, on a otherwise manageable schedule.

Prediction: I think this Iowa State team will come back to earth a bit with a 6-6 finish. This team is going to fight and claw and make opponents earn absolutely everything. But I just think this team falls short in terms of talent in '25. Any sort of injury to Orange on defense would be disastrous, and Becht will have to do more with less.

Actionable: Iowa State under 7.5 -125, K-State, Iowa, Arizona State, TCU, Colorado, BYU. All teams I like a bit more than this Cyclones bunch. Throw in road games to Cincinnati and Oklahoma State and I think this one feels like a solid play.