Baylor 2025 Football Preview, Prediction, betting leans

2025 view from afar: Baylor Bears fans should be quietly optimistic heading into the 2025 season. Dave Aranda entered 2024 firmly on the hot seat, and after a 2-4, it certainly looked as if his time in Waco was ending. Enter Sawyer Robertson (QB), who took over duties for Daquan Finn and led the Bears on a tear to end the regular season on a 6-game winning streak. The shootout of a bowl loss to LSU was a litmus test in which they fell a bit short, but they will have the opportunity to line up against Auburn in the fall to see how they stack up against an SEC foe. Spavital is back calling the offense, and Aranda will again call the defense heading into 2025. I like how Baylor trended up in the recruiting cycle, ending with the #3-ranked class for 2025. Significantly different from the 14th-ranked class in 2024, good signs. Baylor also ranked second in Big 12 transfer portal rankings, but, for my liking, added key pieces at spots of need, not a total overhaul. Aranda seems to overperform when his back is against the wall, and underperform under the microscope. Could this year be the breakout season everyone in Waco is hoping for?

Roster Tidbits: It all starts with Sawyer Robertson under center. The Baylor QB is looking to build off a 3000+ passing yard season and develop chemistry in Spavital's offense. He is a long-shot Heisman contender in my book. Overall, the offense returns 9 starters from last season, and the lone non-starter on the line (RT) started 3 games in cover. I like the continuity here. It would be remiss not to mention freshman sensation Bryson Washington, who rushed for more yards than any other RB in Baylor history and graded 18th on PFF rush grade in the country. Cameron is back after an all-Big 12 caliber season at WR with Prentiss, the transfer from Alabama. This offense is set to go nuclear if it all clicks.

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Defensively, there are more question marks. Can this team get pressure on the quarterback? Can the safety play hold up on the back end? It's not a combination you like to hang your hat on. I do love the addition of CUSA player of the year Barnes from FIU. Late portal additions in the secondary suggest they are not convinced of the Play on the back end. For a team with a PFF grade of 14 in coverage, I don't like to see that.

Schedule: The schedule set up is a big challenge early on. Auburn on opening weekend will be a marquee matchup coming to Waco. Then on the road to SMU for week 2 a playoff team from a year ago. Follow that up in week 4 with a visit from last years Big 12 champ ASU. If this team survives that early gauntlet the sky's the limit, K-state, Utah, and ASU all come to Waco, with the toughest Big 12 road game being TCU.

Prediction: Baylor goes 10-2. I see massive potential for this offense. I see them splitting Auburn and SMU and then getting tripped up in a road spot to TCU. This team should be playing in Arlington.

Actionable to consider: Baylor to make the playoff (+590, Fanduel). I love this bet because this team has a schedule where they don't need to win the Big 12 to achieve this. A win vs Auburn and SMU would do wonders for this team's resume. And if they were to slip up in Arlington, the committee would very much consider it at 11-2.

Sawyer Robertson Heisman (+8000 dk): Who doesn't love a long shot Heisman? With Robertson's cannon arm and his second year in the offense, he will have the weapons to put up serious numbers. If Baylor has a breakout year, he will be in and amongst the conversation.