2025 College Football Playoff Prediction
2025 College Football Playoff Primer
We have finally arrived. Week 1 is upon us, after a little appetizer of a week 0, the return of College Football at its fullest is right around the corner. Boy, does it feel like this week 1 has a lot of implications also. Matchups that will go a long way in determining playoff spots and conference strength. Texas v Ohio State is the premier matchup of the weekend, while Notre Dame is visiting Miami, and LSU is going to the other Death Valley to face Clemson. They could all play roles in determining a team's fate in December. As we have sifted through many of these teams and conferences, College Football is tighter than ever to determine. Particularly, the SEC and ACC. Teams like Tennessee and Auburn have so much talent, but tons of unknown. Is SMU here to stay? The questions go on and on. At the start of the season, I love to see which culture and program has the sustainability and togetherness to endure a setback. In the mercenary era of NIL, teams can fall apart at the drop of a hat. So the likes of Notre Dame last season were a testament to true togetherness and stability, or Ohio State with the savvy and schematic changes, as well as leaders like Jack Sawyer leading a team that was in shambles after another loss to Michigan, to being a team that ends up winning the National Title. With all the research, interview watching, and time grinding rosters, it's time to piece together the final thoughts before we get underway for the 2025 season.
12 Team Playoff Qualifiers
Alabama- The Crimson Tide are absolutely loaded going into 2025. People seem to forget Kalen DeBoer is one of, if not the premier, in-game coaches in college football. Now he feels he has a QB who can run his system in Ty Simpson, as well as the orchestrator of the offense, Ryan Grubb, who left his duties as the Seahawks' offensive coordinator to reunite with his long-time running mate. In 2021, Grubb and DeBoer's led the Mountain West in total offense at Fresno. In 2022, at Washington, they led the nation in passing offense, and in 2023, they led the Huskies to the NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP GAME, a frightening combination for SEC defenses. The talent is just oozing on this roster, Ryan Williams and Germie Bernard at Receiver. Jaeden Roberts, Kadyn Proctor, and Parker Brailsford provide excellent stability on the offensive line. While LT Overton, Tim Keenan III, Deontae Lawson, and Bray Hubbard provide a spine on this defense, there are far too many players to rattle off. Lastly, some of the transfers they plucked were very smart and could provide the proper depth and experience to manage the gauntlet of SEC play, Cam Calhoun and Nikhai Hill-Green being the standouts. Ty Simpson just has to be a solid, functioning quarterback, and this Crimson Tide team will be in a position to get back to National Title contention.
Penn State- I have changed my tune on this team, just a touch, since writing my preview for the summer. Partly due to my opinions on some of the teams they face on their schedule. Similar to what I wrote in the summer, this team is a safe bet for 10 wins. The offensive line play will be tremendous, with two backs that will provide a lot of juice. I am not sure this team can win the National Title, even with third-year starting QB Drew Allar, but they will make the playoffs and get a bye. https://www.firstandgol.com/penn-state-nittany-lions-2025-football/
Notre Dame- The only reason I don't have the Irish number 1 is that they are breaking in a new QB, CJ Carr, against a gauntlet of an opening two weeks. Miami is on the road, and Texas A&M is at home. Though they do get a bye post in Miami, this Notre Dame squad, under the tutelage of Marcus Freeman, is poised for another run to the Championship game. The running game will be outrageous, helping Carr assimilate and get his rhythm and confidence. Meanwhile, the defense may very well be the best in the country. I hate that they lost DC Al Golden to the Bengals, but Freeman, in his short time as a head coach, has shown tremendous growth, making key decisions vs Georgia and Penn State in the playoff push that showed his coaching nuance goes well beyond his tremendous recruiting. Personnel-wise, Jeremiyah Love will be must-watch television at the Running Back spot, but he is not alone; Jadarian Price and Aneyas Williams will all put up numbers behind an offensive line that returns standouts such as Aamil Wagner, Anthonie Knapp, Billy Schrauth, and Charles Jagusah, who came back from injury in the CFP last season, and held up! Defensively, it's a laundry list of names, the stars being LB Drayk Bowen and a premier secondary of Leonard Moore, who led the team in pass breakups a year ago, Christian Gray, who got the iconic interception vs Penn State in the Semifinal, and Adon Shuler, who had three interceptions a year ago, among others. Notre Dame is stacked, and similar to Alabama, just needs highly touted CJ Carr to be solid, and this team's ceiling is National Champion. There have not been many years lately where you can say that about Notre Dame. Marcus Freeman has the program humming.
Texas Longhorns- I will be honest here, when I really dug into the Longhorns, I wasn't as gung-ho as I was earlier in the summer, but I still think Head Coach Steve Sarkisian has this program firing on all cylinders, and geared up for another Playoff push. One of the major separating factors for Texas, as opposed to some of the other big teams, is that Arch Manning truly has an elite ceiling. We have seen glimpses of some special stuff. Torching an albeit porous UTSA defence last season, as well as Mississippi State. In Sark, you must trust the replacements on the offensive line; likely starter Andre Cojoe injured his knee in the summer, creating further question marks for a group that was only returning DJ Campbell as a starter. Having said that, the sheer size and recruiting prowess of the linemen stepping in is staggering, as well as the fact that Manning has shown his ability to run. At 6-4, Manning is a serious athlete! Ryan Wingo is a 5-star WR who was shown up by his class peers, Jeremiah Smith and Ryan Williams, a year ago. Expect him to have a big season. Late transfer addition Jack Endries, a TE from Cal, who led the Golden Bears in receiving last season, could prove a valuable chess piece in Sarkisian's offense. Defensively, this team should be fantastic once again. Picking up two defense tackles weighing in at 340 plus in Cole Brevard and Travis Shaw will shore up the run defense. While the stars of the show remain Anthony Hill Jr at LB, freshman sensation Colin Simmons off the edge, who led the team in sacks last season, with Malik Muhammad and returning All-American Michael Taaffe leading the secondary. Texas opens with a massive test against Ohio State. I like them in the matchup, a rematch of last year's Semifinal, where the Longhorns went toe to toe with the Buckeyes. Of course, this one is in Columbus. I think the Longhorns have fewer question marks heading into 2025, and I think, similar to last year's win at Michigan, Texas marches into the Shoe and beats Ohio State.
Miami Hurricanes- I'll preface this one by acknowledging that it could come back to bite me. Cristobal has shown time and time again a propensity to blow significant opportunities, whether it be at Oregon with Herbert, but none bigger than last season with Cam Ward. The way that team played with fire week in week out was inexcusable, but the defense was a disaster at times. Enter new defensive coordinator Corey Hetherman from Minnesota, and a plethora of transfers. Minnesota was ninth in the nation last year in points allowed, something Cristobal will hope continues in Coral Gables. Three things stand out to me about this year's Canes. First, violent play on both lines of scrimmage, just as Cristobal has been building. On the offensive side, Francis Mauigoa, Anez Cooper, and Matthew McCoy all stand a towering 6'6 and are returning starters. Defensively, Rueben Bain has earned plaudits for the condition he is in, if he stays healthy he has All-American potential, couple him with some of the top recruits in the country in the past few years, including Justin Scott, incoming 5 star Hayden Lowe who has been making waves, as well as proven commodities like All CUSA transfer David Blay Jr, who has been receiving high praise from his coach. Both lines have top 15 in the country potential. Secondly, some hand-picked transfers look to be just what this team needed. Xavier Lucas from Wisconsin and freshman All-American Zechariah Poyser are standouts in the secondary, while LB Mohamed Toure looks to return from an injury that kept him out of '24; he transfers in from Rutgers and will provide a ton of leadership. The third and final thing I really look forward to with this team is the QB. Funny how this time last season, Carson Beck was a favorite to win the Heisman and close to the top of the odds chart for number 1 overall pick in the draft. Without Bowers or McConkey, he still managed to throw 28 TDs and 3,485 yards. He now steps into a situation where he has a clean slate as a leader; he has an offensive coordinator in Shannon Dawson, who orchestrated the number one scoring offense and yards per game last season. A stable of Running Backs, including the Jerry Rice winner (Best FCS Freshman), CharMar Brown, who rushed for over 1,100 yards for North Dakota State. As well as that vicious offensive line we touched on earlier. If any of these highly rated pass catchers hit for Miami (Joshisa Trader, Elijah Lofton, Malachi Toney, a few to look for), this will be a match made in heaven for Beck. I like Miami to win the ACC, I like Beck to be in contention for the Heisman, let's see if Cristobal can finally not fumble the bag.
Oregon Ducks- Similarly to Miami, the Ducks have a loaded roster of talent. As we deep dived this team this summer, I was intrigued by a plethora of players. As the season approaches, Lanning's cohesion with his staff has encouraged me more. When you hear the players or assistants speak, they preach the same messages as Lanning. Dan Lanning has emerged as one of the premier coaches in the sport, but his staff might be a big reason for that. The continuity heading into this season will be huge. Oregon also got a great lesson on the revamped College Football playoff. After running the table, they did not peak at the right time. Lanning has spoken about those lessons, and I think he knows now that a 10-2 team that peaks at the right time will have the talent to compete with anyone. Dante Moore will need the reps and confidence at QB, the secondary buttoning up the schematics, and getting his defensive line a bit more stout against the run, which will be critical for the Ducks making a run at the elusive National Title. https://www.firstandgol.com/oregon-ducks-2025-football-preview/
Michigan Wolverines- There is something about the way Sherrone Moore has been addressing the media about this team, the reports out of Ann Arbor, that this team could be pretty special. Losing 5-star freshman offensive lineman Andrew Babalola to a knee injury this summer is a blow. But the excitement over Underwood is palpable. Michigan had abhorrent QB play last season, and still managed to beat Ohio State and Alabama. I like how Indiana transfer Donaven McCulley has been getting WR 1 talk; they need him to step up. Also, the way Moore has raved about the secondary, how loaded the LB room is, and the "starving" mentality of this group. I see Michigan dropping an early one on the road at Oklahoma. Still, this team's physicality gets them to Indianapolis for a crack at the Big 10 title, and a berth to the College Football playoff.
https://www.firstandgol.com/michigan-wolverines-2025-college/
Utah- I'll stick with my summer choice of the Big 12 champion, the Utah Utes. I love Dampier coming in from New Mexico; he and Wayshawn Parker, the RB transfer from Washington State, will put up ridiculous numbers behind one of the best offensive lines in the country. The brothers Logan(DE) and Spencer Fano(OT) will provide serious juice on opposite sides of the line of scrimmage. While hearing former 4-star recruit Tobias Merriweather having a standout summer is essential, as the Utes lost a ton of WR production. The Big 12 is a roulette wheel, but Utah is built on the trenches, unlike many of the teams in this conference. The QB/coordinator combo from New Mexico, coupled with getting most of the big games at Rice Eccles Stadium, has me rolling with Utah to win the Big 12. https://www.firstandgol.com/big-12-preview-round-up-my-favorite/
Florida Gators- This prediction comes down solely to the health of QB DJ Lagway. A concerning thing, as he often seems to be injured! Between a hammy last season, a shoulder, a calf, and a walking boot? Hard to keep track of! But the talent and numbers speak for themselves when this kid was available. I love that this Gator team has seen a gauntlet of a schedule just like this, only last season. When everyone thought the writing was on the wall for coach Billy Napier, this team scrapped and clawed its way to 8-5, and it's poised for a playoff push. The trenches are stout, with All-American Center Jake Slaughter the anchor. Continuity is key on the Offensive line, and joining Slaughter are Damieon George Jr., Austin Barber, and Bryce Lovett, who not only played significant snaps but graded out highly on PFF. As a freshman, Jadan Baugh led the team in rushing, and I look forward to him having a massive season. Defensively, having a 330-pounder in Caleb Banks to snuff out runs will be huge (pun intended). While returning your leading sack getter, Tyreak Sapp, and interception leader, Bryce Thornton, on the back end. Florida is high-end talent, but not the depth of the massive schools. Health will be absolutely imperative across the board. Vernell Brown III is a name to watch. The 5-star freshman receiver has earned the plaudits of his coach. If he and Lagway have a special connection, the sky is the limit for this team. I see the Gators going 9-3 and doing just enough to get into the playoffs.
UTSA Roadrunners- We deep dove the group of 5 and the Roadrunners, so I will keep this brief. Boise State is the obvious answer here, but outside of the trip to South Bend to play Notre Dame, their schedule will not be attractive on paper. If they slip up on the road at USF(later tonight!) or in the Mountain West, their resume will get seriously dinged. The Mountain West will not be strong this season. So I am taking the high-flying Roadrunners. The trip to Fort Collins scares the daylights out of me, but if they can make it through that and be an 11-2 AAC champion, I see them getting the nod. https://www.firstandgol.com/2025-college-football-g5-playoff-preview/
Georgia Bulldogs- This is where it gets tricky! I have Florida, Texas, and Alabama, all teams on the Bulldogs' schedule. Their offensive line has genuine concerns. The QB play is far from surefire material. The WR transfers are plentiful, but is there a real dude out of that group that will be elite in SEC play? Noah Thomas, Zach Branch? But Kirby Smart has only lost 4 games at home in his tenure at Georgia, and he still has a ridiculous amount of 5-star talent on both sides of the ball. Georgia has a specific type of talent level and body type that will keep them in every game, as I question the offensive line, some of the names looking to make a mark this season are 6'7 360 Juan Gaston, 6'7 325 Redshirt Freshman Michael Uini, and 6'6 325 Redshirt Freshman Daniel Calhoun, those guys will not be easy to move! Elsewhere, some second-year players have the potential to be very special for Kirby Smart, KJ Bolden, the Freshman All-American in the secondary, Chris Cole, the former 5-star Linebacker, and another Freshman All-American, Nate Frazier, who had 8 rushing TDS last season. Lastly, the specialists are electric on the roster, and in the tight margins of College Football in 2025, that could play a huge role. Peyton Woodring will likely challenge Dominic Zvada of Michigan for the Lou Groza Award, which certainly could decide a game or two. The talent is there, the hunger is there for Kirby; this season will be important to see if he can get back to the mountain top without his esteemed coordinators of old, Todd Monken and Will Muschamp.
Let's get weird for the last spot! The final place for me will come down to the winner of Iowa and Indiana on September 27th at Kinnick! I see a pathway for both programs to get to 10 wins. I would have given it to Indiana if the game were at home. Cignetti has likely a better QB than a year ago, a plethora of receivers, talent in the trenches and secondary, and a swagger and winning mentality that will drive the Hoosiers program to a very successful season. With Iowa, yes, they finally have a serviceable QB in Mark Gronowski, but I'm fascinated by the fact that the trenches are starting to look like the Iowa of old on both sides of the ball. Gronowski gives this offense a chance, and if Phil Parker cooks up another classic Iowa defense, I could see this team getting to 10 wins. https://www.firstandgol.com/iowa-hawkeyes-2025-football-preview/ https://www.firstandgol.com/indiana-hoosiers-2025-football-preview/
How It Plays Out- Notre Dame will beat Alabama for their first title since 1988. I envision a DeBoer v Lanning heavyweight bout in one semifinal, with the Irish and Miami rematching in the other. Ultimately, Marcus Freeman has rapidly shown to be one of the premier coaches in the sport. He now has his QB, a loaded RB room, and one of if not the premier defense in the country, Notre Dame is my pick to win it all.
The obvious Omissions and why.
Ohio State Buckeyes- This is strictly a play on the psychological and coordinator aspect. Look, we saw it last season with Michigan. Guys like Will Johnson shut it down. Was the edge and effort there week in and week out for some of the NFL guys? After seeing the performance against the Buckeyes, I'm not so sure! Ohio State will still be excellent, 9 wins! But there are land mines on this schedule for a team that might be thin on the D line, that is breaking in a new, totally inexperienced QB, and has guys who already have the ring on their fingers. Also, replacing both coordinators, who were, by the way, narrowly missed out. https://www.firstandgol.com/ohio-state-buckeyes-2025-football/
Clemson Tigers- I find the love for this team in 2025 interesting. I am, of course, a huge culture guy. So, there is no question; I'm rooting for Clemson here. But if Miami didn't absolutely inexplicably blow a 21-0 lead against Syracuse, then Clemson does not make the ACC championship game. They don't make the playoffs, and yes, they made it tight(ish), but ultimately, Texas was up 31-10 on this group late in the 3rd. Clemson, like Ohio State, has land mines on this schedule that will not be easy, at Georgia Tech, Louisville, and South Carolina! Not to mention a home opener VS LSU, I think the ACC will be a gauntlet, SMU, Louisville, GA Tech, heck, even Duke are no longer pushovers, I only see the ACC champs making the playoff with the attrition. So I am sticking with Miami.