2025 College Football G5 Playoff Preview

G5/6? Playoff Preview

With the future of college football so uncertain, we cherish these days when we can still potentially get the Cinderella run. Boise State beating Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl and Appalachian State blocking that field goal in Ann Arbor are core moments of college football fanhood. So with that said, let's look at the teams that could make some noise in the College Football Playoff in 2025. To give you all some context, I looked at the teams from several angles. Firstly, we must remember that ultimately the College Football Playoff is a television show, a ratings-driven event, where brand names and eyeballs are all important. So we must keep that brand relevance of each school in mind. Secondly, of course, the talent level and continuity of each school go without saying are vitally important. Lastly, I like teams with an opportunity or two on their schedule to get a resume-boosting win, or even a close loss. We all knew Boise was legit when they held a fourth-quarter lead in Autzen Stadium last year vs Oregon. Similarly, when Notre Dame blasted Army and Navy to oblivion down the stretch last season, we knew that was a massive blow to the Service Academies' chance at representing the G5 in the playoffs. Group of 5 sounds much better than Group of six, so let's dive into the 5 tiers of G5 playoff hopefuls!

Tier 1: The Clear-Cut Favorite

1)Boise State Broncos

I will keep this brief since we did a deep dive on the Broncos in the Mountain West Preview https://www.firstandgol.com/mountain-west-2025-predictions/. Spencer Danielson has re-established Boise as the premier Group of 5 program since taking over as the interim in 2023. After reading the reports from Boise, I see that this team has serious potential. Madsen returning at QB gives stability and leadership. Marshall has recovered and looks great at WR, multiple young RBs to replace Jeanty in Malik Sherrod, who has already put up monster stats in this league in 2023, and Sire Gaines, who torched GA Southern last season. The scariest aspect of the lot is the defensive line, which returns leading sack getter Jayden Virgin-Morgan, and impressive summers for the European-born duo of Max Stege and Lopez Sanusi, who could be in line to have big-time seasons. For me, there are only two concerns with Boise: they start on the road vs a frisky South Florida team, it's going to be boiling down in Florida in late August. Hence, the Broncos need to be mentally prepared for a battle. Secondly, Boise to make the playoffs is +180 (DK). With the only other major test on the schedule, a road trip to South Bend to face Notre Dame, Boise has little room for error. Having said that, Boise is the team most of us want to see in the playoffs, something about the Blue turf and many memories we have with the program, Boise is the clear pace-setter in the G5 playoff race.

Boise State To Make Playoff (DK) +180

Tier 2: My favorite conference champions

2) UTSA Roadrunners

Jeff Traylor is one of my favorite coaches in all of college football. The job he has done in San Antonio has been nothing short of remarkable, given the resources of this program. We pulled back the curtain on the Roadrunners earlier in the summerhttps://www.firstandgol.com/utsa-roadrunners-2025-football-preview/, but a few things have stood out since then. One thing I always look out for this time of year is how the players at UTSA vote the 210(Area code of San Antonio) and single digits. The most sought-after numbers in the program are given to the standout players on and off the field. We love seeing Shad Banks Jr(LB) in the coveted 0 jersey, as well as Alabama transfer Kendrick Blackshire in the 9; these guys need to step up for the defense. Offensively, Owen McCown returns and should be one of, if not the best, QBs in the G5. He will also have an embarrassment of riches in skill positions. Led by tight end Houston Thomas, and receivers Devin McCuin and Jaelen Smith, who have been very impressive this summer, according to Traylor. Last year, this team was decimated by injuries. If the returnees on the O-line and receivers can stay healthy, this offense will put up serious numbers. UTSA may not have the brand cache like Boise, but this schedule provides some opportunities for making a statement. Texas A&M to open! With critical non-conference games vs Texas State and Colorado State(this one is key, on the road). The league slate sets up nicely, getting Tulane, Army at home, and avoiding Memphis and Navy. I think an 11-2 conference champion Roadrunners, with a close loss to the Aggies, will have a great chance to represent the G5, especially since this offense will be entertaining to watch!

UTSA To Make Playoff (DK) +1400

3) James Madison Dukes

Head Coach Bob Chesney enters his second year at the helm of the Dukes. He is a proven winner. He won five straight Patriot League titles with Holy Cross before joining James Madison last season, going 9-4, after a truckload of transfer losses to Indiana, among other schools. Chesney and his staff, many of whom came with him from Holy Cross, will be relying on continuity now in year 2, as well as a plethora of options at QB. The infamous Matthew Sluka, who binned off his UNLV career in hopes of more NIL, reunites with Chesney, where the two had a banner season at Holy Cross. Sluka threw for over 1,700 yards and rushed for an additional 1,247 yards. His other option is last season's starter, Alonzo Barnett III (if healthy), who threw for 26 TDS and ran for a further 7, nothing to turn your nose up at. I've mentioned this before in my articles, but I also love when a G5 program returns some of the highest graded players in their respective conference, who aren't incoming transfers from the lower level (as is often the case). Offensively, Pat McMurtrie and Carter Swezie are two of the highest graded returning linemen in the Sun Belt, while defensively, Immanuel Bush on the D-line, as well as Jacob Thomas and DJ Barksdale at safety, are highly graded players returning. JMU also returns a two-headed monster at RB, Wayne Knight, and, in particular, George Pettaway, who are getting rave reviews in the summer. Pettaway is coming off rushing for over 900 yards; behind this deep offensive line, he will put up big numbers. Toss in a few very intriguing transfers, including former Notre Dame 4-star edge Aidan Gobaira, and he's been getting a lot of buzz this summer. The question with the Dukes will be, can they win on the road? LMU was a very disappointing loss last season, with let-downs at Georgia Southern and a poor App State team. If James Madison wants to be the G5 representative, they will have to button that up, with the crucial games at Texas State and Liberty, as well as the eye-watering chance to get their names on the national stage at Louisville. The Sun Belt conference was absolutely ravaged by the transfer portal, but not James Madison. They could be the class of this conference, and a competitive showing vs Louisville, and maybe just one let-down in conference could have this group playoff-bound.

James Madison To Make The Playoff (DK) +1100

4) Liberty Flames

Jamie Chadwell enters his third year in charge at Liberty with a 21-5 record. Unfortunately for Chadwell, four of those 5 losses came last season, the other being the housing Oregon put on them in the bowl in '23. It would be remiss to exclude the Flames from this for two main reasons. Number one, similar to UTSA but on the flip side of the ball, Liberty could have one of, if not the best, G5 defense (outside of Boise). A couple of spring transfers, mainly T.J. Bush to Cal, put a dent in that. But when a CUSA defense returns 3 of its top 5 tacklers, and 4 of the 5 players that had one or multiple interceptions last season, you have to take note. Couple that with an absolute Cake-walk of a schedule, and this team will have every chance to go 12-0. As Kaden Salter transferred to Colorado, Ethan Vasko will provide a breath of fresh air at QB. Vasko threw for over 2,100 yards, as well as rushed for 447. James Madison at home is the gotta have-it game. The challenge Liberty will face is that the 13-0 CUSA champion is the only chance this team has. Any slip-up and Liberty, given the strength of schedule and strength of CUSA, will have no hope.

Liberty To Make Playoff (DK) +1000

Tier 3: The Roulette Table Teams

5)UNLV Rebels

I made my predictions pretty clear about the Rebels in the Mountain West Preview https://www.firstandgol.com/mountain-west-2025-predictions/, so again, I will keep it short. But the old adage of if you have two Quarterbacks, you have none might ring true here. Colandrea or Alex Orji has not seemed to gain much separation from one another, and with UNLV playing in week 0, that is a concern. Dan Mullen was a heck of a hire for UNLV, and a bunch of P4 transfers have many people's eyes wide open. I'm tempering expectations, but the ceiling is undoubtedly there if it all meshes.

UNLV To Make The Playoffs (DK) +1500

6)Memphis Tigers

Memphis is another G5 team that brings back bare bones, with only 3 returning starters. However, Ryan Silverfield has led the Tigers to back-to-back 10-win seasons for the first time in school history. While there is a ton of turnover on the roster, his coaching staff has remained intact. More hope for optimism for the Memphis faithful is that while the returners are few, they have serious talent. Chris Adams is the highest-rated offensive tackle returning in the AAC, while William Whitlow was first-team all-AAC defensively off the edge; both return despite garnering plenty of transfer portal interest. Memphis gets itself on this list despite all the changes because of its potential depth and quality in the trenches and the maverick ability of the transfer QB. 6'9 315 transfer Travis Burke will play opposite Adams on the offensive line. Malachi Breland, the other returning starter, comes in at 6'5 340 at Guard. You don't see that kind of size and athleticism often in the G5. The D-line transfers to watch, according to Silverfield, are Kennesaw State transfer Pooda Walker, former All-MAC performer Rayyan Buell, and Memphis native Taylor Burton, who transfers over from UT-Martin. The QB will be Nevada transfer Brandon Lewis. He threw for 2,290 yards and rushed for 775; his ability to learn the playbook quickly will be instrumental to the Tigers' success in '25. A few of the things that are concerning outside of the glaring lack of player continuity are a summer injury to defensive captain Kourtlan Marsh in the secondary. The lack of leadership may show up in early road tests vs. Georgia State, particularly at Troy in weeks 2 and 3. Getting Arkansas at home is a perfect opportunity for the Tigers to stamp their resume with a massive victory over an SEC foe. Missing UTSA in the conference slate and getting Tulane, South Florida, and Navy at Home is a huge coup. Lastly, on the Tigers, at only +800, for how much uncertainty there is, I would have hoped for a juicier number!

Memphis To Make The Playoff (DK) +800

Tier 4: The Lottery Tickets

7)North Texas Mean Green

We also did a North Texas deep dive earlier in the summer https://www.firstandgol.com/north-texas-mean-green-2025-football/ , so again, go back to see the whole outlook and see if the team from Denton is of interest! But since we wrote that article, Drew Mestemaker has been named the starter. Go back and watch the highlights of the First Responder Bowl vs Texas State from a year ago to see why, racking up 393 yards through the air and a 70-yard TD house call, this kid has all the tools to flourish under Eric Morris's electric offense. He earned rave reviews for his work ethic from teammates and coaches alike. The defense has been and will remain the most significant question mark for North Texas. We pulled the curtain back on the new Sam Houston DC earlier this summer, and the guys he is bringing with him to button up this unit. The kicker for the Mean Green is undoubtedly the pillow-soft schedule. Other than a trip to the Army, it's all very doable. That October 18th home date vs UTSA will go a long way in determining one of the representatives in the AAC title game. Get your popcorn ready for that one!

North Texas To Make The Playoff (DK) +5000

8)Oregon State Beavers

I won't be offended if the eyebrows get raised with this one, but hear me out. Putting the Beavers on this list came down to three things in particular. Firstly, Head Coach Trent Bray, a Beaver through and through, having played at the school and now coached for over a decade, is back in charge of the defense. Reports of night and day enthusiasm, energy, and effectiveness were interesting, as Bray was the defensive coordinator for the Jonathan Smith era in Corvallis, and led some stout defenses, particularly in 2022 when Oregon State had the best total defense in a loaded PAC-12. Bray has spoken about how this linebacking corps may be deeper than the unit in 2022, which is exciting! The secondary also has a ton of length and athleticism 6. 4 Jaheim Patterson, 6'3 Tyrice Ivy Jr., and 6'2 Skyler Thomas all have the size and athleticism to form an air-tight unit. The second reason is QB transfer Maalik Murphy. Now, I know he has quite a few skeptics, but I love that the staff wanted him prior to '24 and doubled down on those efforts once Duke pushed him out the door. He knows he is valued in Corvallis, and the Beavers' QB play a year ago was nothing short of abysmal. Say what you want about his efficiency. The former 4-star prospect did throw for nearly 3,000 yards and 26 TDs last season, which is a massive upgrade to what Oregon State trotted out last season. The third and most important reason is that the schedule is very interesting if they play to their ceiling. Cal, Houston, and Wake Forest all visit Reser Stadium, which is a chance to have multiple P4 victories. A trip to Texas Tech is intriguing, as we have no idea if the Red Raiders will be buttoned up with the plethora of transfers taken. The Civil War between the Ducks and Beavers will likely be non-competitive. Still, looking at the rest of the schedule, if the Beavers get to 10-2 with a feisty performance vs Tech, they could be in the conversation!

Oregon State To Make The Playoff(DK) +8000

9)Buffalo Bulls

In this day and age, you don't see lower-level teams bringing back All-League selections; they might hang on to one or two, but the bigger schools come lurking when you've got that level of talent. Not Buffalo, they return seven(!) All-Mac selections from last season! Head coach Pete Lambo did a remarkable job in year one, leading the Bulls to a 9-4 record, including a drubbing of Liberty in the bowl. They also retained their coordinators, which is another coup at this level. Buffalo returns Kobe Stewart and Dion Crawford, who were first and second overall in the MAC, respectively, in sacks last season. Red Murdock racked up 156 tackles last season, second in the MAC. He returns! Offensively, Al-Jay Henderson was a 1,000-yard back last season; he was second in the MAC in rushing yards. Victor Snow hauled in 6 TD receptions, not even mentioning that this team has some of the highest graded returning offensive linemen, according to PFF, in the conference. Buffalo has continuity, capability in the trenches, and an extremely favorable schedule. A week 1 trip to Minnesota will be a chance for them to make hay on a Big 10 foe. What this may come down to, though, is how transfer QB Ta'Quan Roberson performs. Roberson is a former top 15 QB recruit out of High School who never fully lived up to the billing. He had unsuccessful spells at Penn State and Kansas State, sandwiching his one season of game time at UCONN. If he can find his footing in the MAC, Buffalo should be a MAC title contender. Given this team's ceiling, 60 to 1 is worth taking a long, hard look at.

Buffalo To Make The Playoff +6000

Tier 5: The Patriotic Bet

10)Army Black Knights

As Patriotic a wager as this is, it is by no means a long shot! It was a toss-up between Navy and Army, of course. As we covered in the July 4th deep dive of the Service Academieshttps://www.firstandgol.com/service-academies-2025-football-preview/, I lean toward Army to have a better season. Dewayne Coleman has officially been named the starter, and though they lost a few pieces, remnants of the Joe Moore Award-winning offensive line remain intact. The coaching staff, led by Jeff Monekn, particularly on offense, has bright young minds such as coordinator Cody Worley and Running Backs coach Chandler Burks, who was the interim HC at Kennesaw State for the final three games of last season. I love the staff. With the offensive line and solidity of the defense from front to back, this team's floor is a touch higher than Navy's. With the relative ease of this schedule, the Army could find itself in the AAC championship game once again. Don't forget, the Black Knights are the reigning champs of the conference!

Army To Make The Playoff (DK) +1200

Bonus Tier: We can all dream, right?

11)Hawaii Rainbow Warriors

Let's be real with one another for a second. One of the beautiful traditions of Saturdays in the fall is wagering on and rekindling the random fanhood we have of the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors. There is something, dare I say, spiritual about the program. Maybe it's the beautiful color scheme, the H on that helmet, or memories of Colt Brennan shredding defenses and all of us hoping he could get himself a Heisman! Whatever it is, every year we have a hopeful faith that this program can be a winner! Staying up to ungodly hours, head spinning, that a money line vs Fresno State was just a pipe dream all along. Alas, could 2025 be different? Micah Alejado, the redshirt freshman QB, has all of us sucked back, 469 yards and 5 TDS vs New Mexico to end last season, his two primary WR targets back in Ashlock and Cenacle. The long flowing hair and electrifying play making of Peter Manuma on the defense, two local lads leading this Hawaii team under the tutelage of fellow Hawaii native Timmy Change, what a story! Is it likely? Absolutely not, but we as collective college football fans can all dream of a Cinderella run from the Rainbow Warriors, and unlike years past(if this offense goes absolutely thermo-nuclear, the defense holds up against the run, the offensive line is serviceable, amongst other things) it's at least feasible, in theory!

Hawaii To Make The College Football Playoff (DK) +6000